Football squares odds: the worst numbers, the best ones, and why every square is fair
Squares is a game of last digits, and football scores do not end in every digit equally. Touchdowns are worth 7 (or 6, or 8), field goals 3, and nothing at all 0, so some digits show up constantly and some almost never. Here is what that does to the odds, and why it does not make the game unfair.
Why some digits dominate
Every NFL score is a stack of 7s, 3s, 6s, 8s, and 2s. Stack them and you get last digits like 0 (0, 10, 20, 30), 7 (7, 17, 27), 3 (3, 13, 23), and 4 (14, 24, 34). Those four digits cover the most common scores in the game, which is why the best numbers guide ranks them at the top.
The two-point conversion and the longer extra point (since 2015) made 1, 6, and 8 more common than they used to be, so a 1 or a 6 is no longer a dud. Still, the top four have not changed.
The worst numbers: 2 and 5
To end in 2, a team needs a safety on its own (2), a touchdown with a missed extra point plus two field goals (12), or three touchdowns where one had a two-point conversion (22). Ending in 5 means a field goal plus a safety (5), two touchdowns with one missed extra point plus a safety (15), or three touchdowns, one with a two-point conversion, plus a field goal (25). These combinations happen, but rarely. A square holding a 2 and a 5 is the one people laugh about, and with good reason.
Eight and nine sit just above them. Nine needs a touchdown and a safety (9) or three field goals (9), or 19 or 29. Eight needs a two-point conversion or a specific stack. Both come up, but not often.
How the odds move quarter by quarter
- First quarter: most teams have 0, 3, or 7. A 0-0 square wins the first quarter a surprising amount of the time.
- Second quarter (halftime score): 0, 7, 3, 4, and 1 take over. Ten and seventeen are the classic halftime scores.
- Third quarter: similar to halftime, with more 4s and 1s as scores climb into the twenties.
- Final score: the widest spread. Scores in the twenties and thirties bring 4, 1, 6, and 8 into play, and this is when a 5 or a 9 square finally has a shot.
This is why many groups put the biggest payout on the final score: it is the quarter where the most squares are live.
Why every square is still a fair buy
None of this matters when you claim a square, because the digits do not exist yet. In a proper pool the numbers are drawn at random after the board is full. Before the draw, every square has exactly the same chance: one in a hundred per quarter. The 0-7 square and the 2-5 square cost the same because, when you bought them, they were the same. The draw guide explains why the order of operations is the whole game.
Watching the odds change live
Once the game is on, the odds of each square are a moving target: the score, the clock, and who has the ball all shift which digits are likely next. Boxpick Pro shows a live win probability on every square so you can see your 2-5 square go from hopeless to "wait, actually" after a safety. Joining a board is free for everyone, and regular season boards are free to host.
What are the worst numbers in football squares?
Two and five. Scores ending in 2 or 5 need unusual combinations (a safety, a lone field goal plus a safety, a touchdown with a missed extra point and a field goal) so they come up far less often than 0, 7, 3, or 4. Eight and nine are the next least common.
What are the odds of winning a square?
Before the draw, every square has exactly the same chance, one in a hundred per quarter, because the digits are assigned at random after the squares are claimed. After the draw, a square's real odds depend on its two digits: a 0-7 square is a strong one, a 2-5 square is a long shot.
Do the odds change during the game?
Yes. Early quarters are dominated by 0, 3, and 7 because few points have been scored. By the fourth quarter more digits are in play and the spread evens out a little. Boxpick Pro shows live win probability on every square as the score and clock move.
Can I pick my numbers to get better odds?
Not in a proper squares pool. The numbers are drawn after all squares are claimed, so nobody chooses their digits. That is the whole point: every square is the same price because every square starts with the same odds.
See the odds live
Boxpick Pro shows every square's live chance of hitting as the game moves. Free to join, free to host all regular season.
